[原创]我国股市风险的特征

范思妮

< class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">风险的结构</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B>
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<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">                         风险是投资的核心问题，俗话说：“股市有风险，入市需谨慎。”股市的风险都有哪些？马科维茨的资产组合理论和夏普的资本资产定价模型，是现代金融理论的基石，开创性地将风险分解为系统性风险和非系统性风险。系统性风险是指影响所有证券的政治、经济等风险，如政策、利率和购买力风险等。系统性风险既然对所有证券都起作用，所以无法通过多样化投资来分散掉。非系统性风险则是指只涉及单个证券，企业自身的风险，如公司管理、破产、违约等风险。非系统性风险可以通过多样化投资来降低和分散，实证研究表明，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">15</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">——</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">个左右的股票，基本就能分散掉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">90%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">以上的非系统性风险。</SPAN>
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< class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">风险的度量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">        <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">近年来，多位学者对我国股市的风险进行了度量，其中有施东辉（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1996</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">），他统计的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1993</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1996</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月，上海证券市场系统性风险占总风险的比例为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">81.37%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。高达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上的系统性风险，说明所有的证券都“齐涨共跌”，组合投资只能分散掉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的风险，看市场大势是主要的，选股的重要性可以忽略不计。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">后来的研究还有陶晋等（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2002</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）统计的，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1993</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2001</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，年平均系统性风险为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">51.23%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，虽然比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">93</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">——</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">96</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年间</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的系统性风险有所降低，但仍然有超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的风险无法通过组合投资分散掉。发达国家成熟证券市场只有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">——</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的系统性风险，因此其投资活动的核心是如何选股，象巴菲特、彼得林奇等，根本不考虑市场的影响，因为组合投资已经可以分散掉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的风险。而在我国证券市场，组合投资只能分散掉大约</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的风险，投资的首要工作是对市场大势的判断和控制仓位。在对基金业绩的归因分析中也表明，资产配置（仓位控制）对基金业绩的影响达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">——</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">由于样本、方法及统计期限的不同，最近的研究表明，系统性风险呈现缓慢下降的趋势。比如金晓斌等（</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2003</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）的统计认为，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1995</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2002</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年里，平均系统性风险占总风险的比例为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。其他还有对</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2002</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2004</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的系统性风险的统计也表明，最近几年我国股市的系统性风险约为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。这说明，个股的走势虽然还受大势的影响，但这种影响在弱化，个股的个性正在表现出来，股价已经开始区分个股的好坏。“齐涨共跌”模式的淡化，表明投资的成败越来越取决于个股的选择。就发展趋势来看，选股越来越重要了。</SPAN>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN></B>       
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">系统性风险高的主要原因</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">        <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">                         彼得林奇说，熊市行情（下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">20%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">或更多），每隔</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">6</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年就会出现一次；而市场崩溃的行情（下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">30%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">或更多），从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">1929</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">以来，只发生了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次。如果林奇先生在中国说这样的话，我们都要笑了。道琼斯指数在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年里，单日跌幅超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">7%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">的日期只有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">15</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次，而上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">6</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年里就发生了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">23</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次。我国股市年波动率高达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">60%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">，从几个波动性高的年份可以看出，当年的政策与股市的波动性有很大关系。如</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">1995</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年的“</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">3.27</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">国债期货”事件，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">1996</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年的涨跌幅限制，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2001</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年的国有股减持等，都造成了股指的大幅波动。特别是国有股减持，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2001</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年以来市场历次的顶与底，都与国有股的减与不减有关。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2004</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">月的大波动，则与国家的宏观经济政策有关。由此可见，我国证券市场受人为、政策的影响较大，政策因素是造成我国股市系统性风险高的主要原因。我国股市一直饱受“政策市”、“消息市”的诟病，不是没有道理的。</SPAN>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">结论及建议</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">        <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">系统性风险的高低决定了我们投资策略的选择，系统性风险高，投资“重大盘轻个股”；系统性风险低，投资“轻大盘重个股”。我国股市正处于从重大盘到重个股的过渡时期，系统性风险偏高的现象虽然短期难以根本改观，但一味重大盘轻个股则有被市场发展趋势淘汰的危险。所以要加强对股票基本面的研究，分清公司好坏，采取“两头都要抓，两手都要硬”的方针，是目前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">股投资的最好策略。</SPAN>
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